Shooting Craps

Publishing is really a crap shoot - you just never know what will catch reader's attention and what will just slip away into oblivion.

This weekend has been one of my best, ever, with the exception of three months in 2011 when my books were literally flying off the shelves. About two weeks ago, The Unwanted Heiress, a sweet Regency romance was released, or rather re-released as it had previously come out as I Bid One American. The cover for The Unwanted Heiress was redone by a professional cover artist, Amber Shah, based on a photograph by Jenn LeBlanc, and the results were terrific.

The book had always done well and attracted the interest of two agents, so when I got the rights back, I re-edited it and got it re-released.

The results have been everything I could have hoped for. Back in 2011, several of my Regency mysteries did very, very well (The Vital Principle and the Regency romantic mystery, A Rose Before Dying) but I had never been able to crack that "2,000 in all Kindle books" bestseller barrier. This time, I did. On Saturday, March 23, I got a ranking of 1,995 in all Kindle books!

How did I finally break the barrier? Beats me. In fact, I've done absolutely nothing other than mentioning the book on my author page on Facebook a few times and tweeting about it a few times. Like many others, I read Konrath's blog about publishing and he's pretty well clueless, too, about what suddenly attracts readers to a book (and hopefully, an author), except for a few basics:

• A great cover - this is what catches the attention, first
• A great blurb
• A great title

The funny thing is, this reminds me of my first research into publishing when I began seriously writing (for the second time, after college) back in the late 90's. What I kept hearing, especially from unpublished authors, was that publishers kept telling them they wanted, "Something that is the same, only different." What the heck does that mean?

It means a book that fits comfortably into a genre that readers know and love, and yet is somehow different while it remains within the bounds of that genre. Now some writers can break through and establish entirely new genres, e.g. Georgette Heyer or Stephen King, but for the most part, if you want to sell, you need to write a book that readers can "place." That means, that readers know/understand what to expect. Oh, not that they know what to expect in every detail, but in general terms, like knowing there will be a happy ending.

Writing a book that fits within a genre, of course, doesn't guarantee sales, but it will generate more sales than writing a mishmash, e.g. a Frankenstein-meets-Gone-with-the-Wind-in-Space. If readers can't wrap their heads around a concept, it's going to be hard to find readers unless, of course, you're the next Stephen King. And while most writers think they are not only the next best thing to King, but actually better, I'm afraid the reality is: probably not.

So I'm grateful that readers are discovering The Unwanted Heiress and I hope they enjoy the sweet Regency romance. It fits nicely in the Regency genre, but as so many editors requested, it is the same, only a little different.

Happy Reading!

Interview with Randy Rawls

Today, I interview author Randy Rawls. He writes mysteries featuring detective Ace Edwards and most recently, a mystery/suspense, called "Thorns on Roses". I can't resist a book that has the word "rose" in the title as I grow roses. Thankfully, Randy agreed to an interview, so here he is.

What prompted you to write THORNS ON ROSES?
I'd written six Ace Edwards, Dallas PI, mysteries, which I'm told are cozies. I wondered if I could write a thriller, something with a harder edge. When I saw Tom Jeffries entering a morgue to identify a body, I knew it was what I had been looking for. THORNS ON ROSES was born.

Why did you decide to write?
Wow, tough question. Kind of like asking why I chose a career in the Army. I just did. That's the best answer I have. I didn't sit down and weigh all the pros and cons, ups and downs, or any of the other measurement tools we're taught to use. I enjoyed my time in the Army so I stayed in. I enjoy writing so I write.

How much research do you do?
I do enough research to make sure my facts are correct. If I choose to use a particular weapon, I research that weapon and make sure I use it correctly. It drives me nuts to read about a safety on a revolver—ain't no such thing. Same with a cylinder or a clip on a semi-automatic pistol.

Research today is made simple by the vast amount of information on the Internet. Unfortunately, some of it is not accurate. A writer owes it to his reader to make doubly-dang sure that what he writes is correct.

What’s your favorite method for researching?
Consult an expert. If I happen to know an expert on a subject, I pick his or her brain. If not, I go to the Internet and find one or more.
Do you have a favorite theme or message for your readers?
Yes. Read, read, read. There are so many wonderful writers in the marketplace today that deserve to be read. Find them and read them.
When do you write/what is your writing day like?
When the story grabs me, I am absorbed by it. I am so intent on getting it on my hard drive I ignore everything around me. This is not always good since My Honey might say, "Dinner's ready," and I completely miss it. If that happens, she is not pleased.

What is the best advice someone has given you about writing? The worst advice?
Best advice. Write what you like to read. Yeah, that might seem simple, but I know people who attempt to write what is popular, whether they like it or not. Vampires are hot—they write a vampire story. Werewolves—yep, a werewolf story. However, the downside is they never write a good story, only what they think the reader will want to read. And they don't enjoy their writing experiences as much as I do.

Worst advice. Just write it, the Agent/Editor will fix it. I still hear this from would-be writers. Horrible advice that should never be repeated. I've never heard this from a published writer.

How do you approach a new book? Outlines? Just an idea?
An opening. I see an opening and let the story take me where it will. For example, I just started a new book, another thriller. I saw a confrontation in an alley between the protagonist and two thugs intent on molesting a teenage girl. Not real sure where the story will take me, but I'm sure I'll enjoy the ride.

Outlines. Bah humbug! I still shudder at the thought of outlining. A thousand or so years ago when I was a student, the teacher would insist I turn in an outline with my paper. I did it by writing the paper, then writing the outline. I hope no one ever asks me for an outline again.

How do you develop your characters?
Basically, I see them and see the actions they're involved in. That's good for me, but not always good for my readers. I've been told I don't describe my characters enough—you know, height, weight, hair color, etc. However, I always hope my words cause the reader to create their own visions of the characters.

Who are your favorite authors? Have any authors inspired you or influenced your work?
Too many to list. I just read John Hart's new book, IRON HOUSE. He is undoubtedly one of the best, if not the best, wordsmith in the business today. Definitely high on my list of favorites. P.J. Parrish, Michael Connelly, Robert Crais, Harlan Coben, Ken Follett, Bill Crider and many other NY-published authors. Then there are many small press authors that I enjoy. I'm an avid reader, never go anywhere without book. To get on my list of favorites, all an author has to do is write a good story.

Every book I read influences my work. I'm always looking for what makes this author so good, how does he/she express him/herself? I'm a firm believer in learning from the best, and that's what I try to do as I read.

What makes a great book in your opinion?
One criteria: Good writing. I can tolerate a weak story if the writing is good. I cannot and will not bother with any book that is poorly written, no matter how wonderful the plot might be. And that includes those books whose authors try to impress me with how much gutter language they can put on the page.

If a reader took away one thing from your book(s), what would you like that to be?
That I love to write, and that I take my writing seriously.

Do you have any tips for aspiring authors?
Yes, one tip that will never lead you astray. Read, read, read, and learn from what you read. Then read, read, read some more.

Where do you see yourself as an author in five years?
Not much different from today. I've accepted that NY is never going to gobble up one of my books and turn me into an instant millionaire. I'll keep writing and keep working with small publishers to turn out the best books we can.

Where do you see the publishing industry going in the next few years and where do you see yourself within this industry?
A year ago, I would have said the ease of publishing ebooks would cause the influence of the big publishers to wane and the huge conglomerates that control the industry might well break up. The role of Agents would also shrink. That was last year.

This year, I'm not so sure. The explosion of self-published ebooks threatens to kill the golden goose. The marketplace is suffering from a plethora of bad, bad ebooks. With no gatekeeper to screen what is published, "writers" are putting out manuscripts that aren't ready—far from ready.

This is fine for the writer's ego, but what about the reader? The reader now finds himself having to search through a ton of books, all with wonderful "reviews" to find something worthy of reading. Some of those readers, and I am one, will not waste the time required to find that one gem in a dumpster filled with broken glass. This will result in the reader returning to the tried and true, published by real publishers, large and small. So, instead of seeing the demise of publishers and agents, they will maintain their influence in the marketplace. This last year of unbridled self-epublishing has proven that gatekeepers are a necessary evil.

* * * * *
Thank you, Randy. I was particularly fascinated with your views on where the industry is headed. It is a time of vast changes, both good and bad, but in the end, I think readers will find they have more choices than they used to have and can find those gems, despite the broken glass.

What's it worth to you?

eBook Pricing...Say What?
So there's this huge debate going on in the ether (otherwise known as the Internet) about the pricing of ebooks, and I'm like...huh? You don't have enough to worry about?

We're talking unit price, not overall earnings. That's the part that makes this ridiculous. Who cares what the unit price is? Other than the readers, of course, who are always scrounging for another dime to buy something to read and appreciate getting good books el cheapo. There's already a long, well-established tradition of used bookstores and libraries (free books! What a deal!) that some of us use to try to stretch our dimes a bit further.

Here's the argument:
If you sell your book for $.99, you devalue it.

Really? You mean that book I got last weekend from the Waccamaw Boys & Girls School Thrift Store for $.25 has less value to me as a reader than it would if I had to pay $9.99 (and frankly, couldn't afford to buy it)?

I don't think so.

First off, you can't force a reader to value you, or your work, more by forcing them to pay more for it. They just won't buy it. You can enjoy your ego-trip thinking about how to make people pay more so they will know how much work you put into your product, but the reality is: if you're a writer, you have other things to worry about, including: writing the next book; writing the next book better than the previous book; and royalties.

Your focus should be on royalties, not unit price. Historically, you've never been able to set or control the unit price if you're traditionally published, why do you worry about it in relation to some theoretical "value" placed upon your work? There is no relationship between the two. Except what your ego places there.

Royalties = the money you earn on that book (of course, with an advance if you get one). That's your revenue stream.

The unit price that generates that revenue stream is irrelevant, except in dinking around with it to generate the largest revenue stream possible.

I would rather make $20,000 selling books for $.99 than $1,000 selling books for $24.95 for my traditionally published book. Because it's not the unit price that interests me (or any businessman or businesswoman); it's the revenue stream.

Which brings me to the second flaw in this thought process that focuses on unit price: if you set the price higher, you'll make more.

Probably not.

Again, you're making assumptions with no facts to back them. There's no such thing as a gauranteed sale unless you're like...Rowlings or someone like that. But we're not talking about a mega-super-star, here. We talking about John and Jane Doe-Author. Just because you can sell 1 million books at $.99 does NOT mean you will sell 1 million books at $9.99. In fact, odds are good you will sell sufficiently less to make the $9.99 per unit revenue stream less profitable than the $.99 per unit stream.

Am I saying that all books should be priced at $.99 if you want to sell a million?
Heck, no. I'm not insane (even if I sound that way).

What I'm saying is that pricing is not an exact art. There are times when you may want to use the $.99 price as an "intro" or "sales" price to generate interest. You may want to use it for the first book in a series to entice readers. You then may want to use a strategy such as:
$.99 - first book in series/short stories
$1.99 - novellas
$2.99 - full lenth novels/2nd and subsequent books in a series

Or higher prices. It's up to you. Do what works for you and your audience. But my advice is: leave your ego at the door.
This should be a business decision. It should not be about making readers value your work.

Only your work can make readers value your work, regardless of price.

Indie Publishing and Marketing

I recently wrote another blog for Voices of The Heart about indie (as in independent) publishing versus legacy (or traditional) publishing. It's a hugely popular subject at the moment. Authors struggling to find an audience and make a living at their craft see a handful of authors like J.A. Konrath and Amanda Hocking not only making a living but becoming rich on independently published books. Everyone wants to match their success, or at least be able to pay their bills. Or, even earn enough to pay for their writing-related expenses.

With each passing day, it seems like more and more established authors are hauling out their backlists or even previously unpublished books, blowing off the dust, and squirting them off to Amazon, Barnes & Nobles, and Smashwords to make a few bucks. Which makes it even harder for less well-known authors to find their audience as their books are literally submerged under a tsunami of books all in the same genre.

Answers are wishy-washy at best. All of us are mystified about what makes a reader buy one book over another. Read Konrath's blog if you don't believe me. He's experiemented with pricing, blurbs, covers, etc, and still can't quite decide what makes one of his books sell more than another. As for marketing, the most successful independent author out there, Amanda Hocking, is the first to admit she has no idea why her books took off and sold so well. She did shockingly little marketing (frankly, almost none).

As for me, after five small press/legacy published books that haven't quite paid for my writing expenses yet (dues to various writing organizations, paper, ink, that sort of thing), I went indie with one of my latest mysteries and am just as mystified as the others when I see that book, priced at a lowly $.99 outselling my five other books, combined. In fact, by the end of the year, it will have earned more money than I got for an advance for my mystery that isn't even out yet (due out in hardcover in 2012). That's if it continues to sell at the current rate. I'm not even assuming it may increase in sales, or adding in the second book I have coming out soon.

So what conclusions can we draw?
There has to be something....

• Price. Price is a huge factor and it has nothing to do with any esoteric "artistic value to the reader". Get over that idea right now, it will only cause you to make terrible decisions. A lot more people are willing to buy a book at $.99 than at $7.00. It's the revenue stream that matters, not the individual unit price. Believe me. I know. To tempt readers, you need at least one book for $.99 as an "entry-book". (Think like drug pushers and you'll do just fine.)
• Cover. You need a great cover. Or at least not an appallingly bad cover. Or a cover that looks like your 7-year-old daughter created it as she twirled around in a pink tutu. It should look professional.
• Blurb. You need a great blurb. No errors. One that tempts and teases the reader. One that grabs and won't let a reader rest until they buy the book and find out what it's all about. Present the core of the conflict and make it pithy.
• Marketing. To a large extent, marketing is a waste of your time. There are only a few things you can really do that make a difference. Here they are: get reviews for your book; participate in blogs that are NOT hard sells of your book--you need to provide something of interest that may be related to your book, but stop just talking about your book (for crying out loud); participate in some of the groups out there but not as a poster of excerpts, but as a real human with interesting ideas, opinions, etc; Twitter--but not about your book all the time.
       - You'll notice a theme under marketing: shut up about your book, already. What you're looking for is to build a social network and provide your friends and readers with interesting information. It can be related to your book, but if all you do is squirt excerpts out everywhere and post solely about your book, then people will tune you out. They'll have no reason to listen. As Konrath says: it's all about content. Give them something of value. I've seen a huge change in the success of my marketing strategy--such as it is--when I simply stopped chatting up my books all the time. In fact, I sold more books than ever during the month when I was off the 'net entirely and not doing any marketing whatsoever.
        - Note: My first month of sales beat the last year of sales for all of my five previous small-press books combined. Last month tripled that number. This is for ONE book. If my book remains at the same level of sales, by the end of the year I will have already earned what I got as an advance for my most recent legacy-published book. By the time that legacy-published book comes out in 2012, I'll have already earned TWICE that advance; and that is if the sales of my one book remain flat at the current level.
        - Sadly, success breeds success. If your book starts generating sales, that will generate more interest. More interest will generate more sales. This happens organically, on its own, and there's pretty much nothing you can do about it. Except...
• Write. Your very best tool is writing the next book and publishing it at a reasonable price. No more than $2.99. Every author has reported that when they published a second (or subsequent) book, it created a jump in sales for all previous books. So your very, very BEST MARKETING tool is...the next book.

• Subject Matter. One of the reasons a lot of folks go indie is because they have a book they couldn't sell elsewhere. Here's the really awkward, wince-inducing thing: if an editor mentioned something like --we're not sure who the audience would be and this genre/subject doesn't really sell... then you need to pause. A big reason why otherwise terrific books that have great covers, perfect blurbs, and a low price don't sell is because readers aren't particularly interested in the topic. Sometimes this is simply because the blurb or description of the story is uninteresting (remember to put the characters and their conflict first--readers connect with the characters--not some artistic or thematic concept-in-the-sky). Sometimes, you've really gone "too far out there" with the story, e.g. Praying Mantis - the story of an epileptic cat-man who is destroyed by love...with a woman who eats cats for breakfast. Literally. You know what I mean.
       - If you really intend to write for an audience as opposed to yourself, you have to consider your readers. They come first. They have to, because they're going to pay their money to read your cr*p. Don't make them regret it.

So that sums up much of what I've learned. For me, it's still a tough decision. I like the money I'm earning as an indie author, but I still want the validation and opportunity to work with other industry professionals (like editors I didn't buy) that legacy publishing brings to the table. And although I plan to have a second indie book out by July (A Rose Before Dying) I'm still fiddling with a manuscript that I may send to a legacy publisher. May.

I guess we'll see what happens.

Guest Author: Danielle Monsch

I'm pleased to have Danielle Monsch on my blog today, talking about one of my favorite subjects: Embracing Digital. There is a huge revolution underway and I'm glad Dani agreed to talk about it.

EMBRACING DIGITAL

This is an exciting time to be an author.

Others might not use that word, and they would have a point. Other words such as uncertain or terrifying also fit nicely into that sentence, but I choose to look at the good things all this change has brought us.

With the digital revolution has come epubs, and I think that is a great development.

As both a reader and a writer, what I crave most is choice. When it comes to writing, I want to be able to tell the story that comes to my head in the best possible way I can, without worrying about story length or sometimes even subject matter.

When only print existed, this was not a possibility. Stories needed to be this length, structured like this, and in one of these settings. That is all.

As a reader, I like having hundreds of stories all in one gizmo that fits in my purse, and knowing whatever I’m in the mood for, whatever length I need it to be, I have it.

Does this mean I am unaware of the negatives. Of course not. I want to have my stories in print. I want to be able to point to a book on my shelf and tell someone, “Look at the name, that’s me!” I want to do a book signing. Like most authors, I still feel print is the brass ring, and I am so reaching for it.

But all this change is making print nervous. Fewer debut authors are being signed. Mid-list authors are getting pushed to the side. All NY money and energy is seems to be focused on the ones who are already superstars and the occasional vanity book by the latest spoiled society kid or reality TV star.

I’m not unaware of the negatives, but I refuse to look at them. It’s a choice I made when I decided that I wanted to make a career out of writing. I’m going to embrace the positives and run with them.

So I now have a story published with an epub, and I am beyond thrilled. It’s a short story, not a novel, so the only reason this story was ever able to see the light of day is due to the fact epubs exist! How cool is that? Especially as I’m rather fond of this story, and I’m really glad I can share it with people.

And all those other stories in my head that are too short and would never be able to exist in a print only world? Hopefully you all will be seeing those as well, believe me, I’m going to keep writing them!

And those novels that I would love to see in print? Well, signing fewer authors still means authors are being signed, and until the last print publisher closes its doors, I’m going to keep submitting.

What about you? Are you excited over all the change, or are you just chugging antacids daily? I’m giving a copy of my story Loving a Fairy Godmother to one random commenter, so let me know!

Bio
Danielle Monsch is a Romantic Geek Girl Writing in a Fantasy World. You can find her on the web at http://www.daniellemonsch.com/ , www.twitter.com/DaniMonsch , www.facebook.com/DanielleMonsch  and email her at Dani@DanielleMonsch.com

Loving a Fairy Godmother is available at Liquid Silver Books at http://bit.ly/Dani_LFG

LOVING A FAIRY GODMOTHER

Blurb:

Tiernan is one of a kind. Beyond the divine dimples, killer blue eyes, and hard muscled body, Tiernan is also the only Fairy Godfather. Most of the Fairy Godmothers have no problem with keeping Tiernan around, but Reina isn’t like most Fairy Godmothers.

Amongst Fairy Godmothers, Reina is the best. Organized, efficient, logical. So why is it when Tiernan is around, all those qualities fly out the window? Reina doesn’t like that one infuriating male makes her lose control, and just wants him gone. Circumstances arise that just might let her get her wish, though not in a way she ever wanted.

Tiernan is given an assignment and told either get a Happily Ever After or he will no longer be a Fairy Godfather. Reina is going with him to supervise, but if Tiernan gets his way, he’ll not only be supervising that luscious stubborn fairy in bed, but also get her to admit Happily Ever Afters also apply to Fairy Godmothers.

Excerpt:

“Godfather Tiernan—”


“You can just call me Tiernan,” he interrupted.


She tried again. “Godfather Tiernan—”


“”Didn’t Sara just tell you that you had to follow my directions?”


That pushed her over the edge. “Do you truly think you are going to secure a HEA when you haven’t been able to do it yet?”


He let out a derisive snort, but immediately realized that was a huge mistake. Her face lost her usual look of annoyance crossed with bemused tolerance, leaving pure ice in its place. “This is why men should not be allowed into the Godmother program. None of you have any respect for Happily Ever Afters.”


“I never said I didn’t believe in HEAs” he began, but she cut him off.


“Every case you’ve been on tells me you don’t believe, or else you would have tried once, just once, to get one!”


His hands slammed on the table as he leaned across it, his face coming inches from hers. “I’ve never tried because I believe in love! Humans need love so much, who the hell was I to screw up two people in love to get them to HEA status? I could never forgive myself if two people in love missed out on each other because of my actions!”


All anger fled her face, and a hesitant, unsure look came over features. “What do you think a HEA is?”


He drew in a deep breath, sitting down once again. “I think happily ever after is a nice way to end a story, but in the world I remember, it’s a waste.”


Her hand was halfway towards him before she seemed to remember their roles, and she pulled it back to her side. “Love is wonderful, but only love alone is incomplete. You can love someone, but they can ultimately not be right for you. Even in love, people can still be led to believe the worst of each other, still hurt each other, still decide they are better without the other,” she began, her words hesitant, as if she was trying to define to herself what it all meant as much as to him. “But the Happily Ever After is so much more. It’s finding your perfect match, love purified, refined, to such an extent that it can never be sundered. With a Happily Ever After, men can achieve greatness, as can all the generations who follow growing up in its shadow.”


“And you think jeopardizing the surety of a love match now is worth it for only the possibility of a Happily Ever After?” he asked, his voice gentle, reverent, wanting nothing to break this intimacy their words were creating.


“I do. In your view, maybe that seems cruel, but in my view, there is no greater tragedy then two people who almost make this connection but fall short in the end.”


Such a hard exterior to cover such a tender heart. “I’m not sure if I can believe as you do,” he said after considering her words. “But I never want Sara... you... to feel as if I let you down. After we get this situation behind us, I want you proud of the job I do.”


And as his breath caught at the rare smile she bestowed upon him just then, he knew all she had to do was keep smiling at him like that, and anything she wanted, whether it be his beliefs or his blood, he would give her.


Her smile faded, and the moment ended. Reina cloaked herself in her position of authority as she handed him the file that had been sitting on her desk. It was already open to show a picture of a blond girl, pretty and vibrant with a mouth full of straight white teeth, all of which was evident even underneath the dirt. “I looked over this case earlier, before I realized what was going on,” she said. “It is a good, solid HEA case. There are several challenges to overcome, but also several sources of help for the client. It is about as perfect as a case can be for this purpose, as evenly balanced as I’ve ever seen. No one can accuse the council of favoring either side. The girl’s name is Cinderella. She lives with an abusive Stepmother and two rotten spoiled stepsisters. She is a very kind, generous girl—though a little too much of a doormat, if you ask me—but outside of that, not really any other character flaws. She is much beloved in her village, children and small animals flock to her daily. In short, we exist to give HEAs to mortals like her.”


Tiernan read the file quickly, then flipped the page and took in the photo of the male who would supply the HEA. “A prince, huh? That’s pretty standard.”


“Indeed, but for the most part, we don’t mess with the classics here.” The pointed look she gave him told him he was one of the exceptions, and she wasn’t necessarily thrilled about it. Ah yes, completely back to normal.


He returned that look with a flirty smile. “I used to serve royalty, Godmother Reina. Believe me when I say, sometimes the large crown is to compensate for something.”


“Oh really? Well, I assume we can say the same thing about your sword, eh, knight?”


Maybe not completely back to normal after all. The second those words passed her lips her eyes went saucer wide, and Tiernan couldn’t say who was more shocked, him or Reina herself. There was no way he was letting this pass. His voice coming out a low growl, he replied, “Why, Reina, I never knew you were interested in the size of my sword. Anytime you want a private viewing, I will be more than happy to oblige.”

---
Thanks, Dani!

Good News for Publishing Industry

Is it the end of publishing as we know it?
Why...no.

From Publishers Weekly, it appears that bookstore sales have jumped 9.3% in February (to an astounding $1.11 billion). Of course this reflects sales through college and trade bookstores, so maybe we're just seeing a lot of folks buying textbooks for the spring semester. :)

However, despite all the folks predicting the triumph of independent publishing over traditional publishing, there's still room, and a need, for both. Yes, e-publishing is growing by leaps and bounds, and writers are finding it enormously freeing to take control of their work and publish it themselves. All kinds of "cottage industries" are starting to sprout up to support this, including editing services, graphic artists (cover design), and even formatting services.

Ironically, I think the first group of publishers to feel the squeeze might not be the big traditional NY publishing houses, although they are certainly struggling to figure it out. The first casualty may be the smaller houses. If you can hire an independent editor and graphic artist, why go to a small house? The ultimate product will be priced much higher than the standard ($.99 for novellas, short stories, and the first book in a series/$2.99 for standard novels). Those books will be unable to compete since they are up against: backlist books of established authors that have the advantage of having gone through the editing process at a traditional NY publishing house; and indie author books.

The thing that smaller publishing houses can give an author, however, may be sufficient to keep them going for a while. That thing is: credibility. Someone else thinks your book is worthy of reading.

We can't entirely discredit the desire for credibility or the even more compelling desire to be able to brag that an editor thought your writing was good enough to offer a contract. For some writers, even if they never sell more than 10 copies, that's reason enough to go with a publisher--any publisher--small or large. They want credibility as an author.

That's the one thing I haven't quite been able to wrap my head around when it comes to indie publishing. Humans naturally want to be able to categorize things and people. There are a lot of psychological reasons why and I won't bore you with all of them. But it is convenient to have various strata in any industry, because it gives you a "short-hand" to kind of know what you're dealing with.

Let's compare Publishing to Acting, because a lot of folks can relate to that, and it will show you want I mean.

Publishing Arena                  Acting Arena
Indie Authors                            Indie filmmakers, actors in commercials/supermarket openings
Small Press Authors               Actors in bit parts
Mid-List w/ Trad. House         Actors in the soaps/Made-for-TV Movies
NY Times Best Seller             Movie Star
Mega-Author                           A-List Movie Star

If you remove the publishing houses from the mix...it's weird to see how it would all shake out. I mean, how can an A-List Movie Star get to be a movie star without a studio to produce the blockbuster movie.

And yet...you have Mega-Authors like Amanda Hocking come along as an indie author...and yet... She just signed a contract with a major publishing house. Just like any A-List Movie Star would.

In the end, I'm glad to see the good news from the publishing world, but I also think we don't really know how this is all going to shake out in the next several years.

Amy Corwin writes mysteries and romantic mysteries. Her latest "The Vital Principle" is available through Amazon and other online bookstores.

The Vital Principle
In 1815, an inquiry agent, Mr. Knighton Gaunt, is asked by Lord Crowley to attend a séance with the express purpose of revealing the spiritualist as a fraud. The séance ends abruptly, however, and during the turmoil, Lord Crowley dies. Gaunt is left to investigate not only fraud, but murder. Suspicion turns first to the spiritualist, Miss Prudence Barnard, but as Gaunt digs deeper into the twisted history of the guests at Rosecrest, he discovers more deadly secrets.  Inevitably, long-time friends turn against one another as the tension mounts and Gaunt is challenged to separate fact from fiction.

Publishing, ePublishing and Marketing

Publishing
It's not all doom-and-gloom out there for traditional publishers. After all, St. Martins just signed Amanda Hocking for a 4-book deal which will allow her to push her books into other shopping venues like traditional bookstores and mass-market outlets like Target and Wal-Mart.

In addition, revenues at Random House rose 6.1% which ain't bad. Their increased revenues were due in part to a 250% increase in e-book sales, which I consider a very good thing. Random House is one of the publishers who seem to be doing a pretty good job straddling the e-book and print markets, which gets their books into the hands of a lot more readers. For writers who sign with Random House, they have a shifting scale-rate for e-book royalties that range from 25% to 40%.

Other Press is raising it's e-book royalty rate to 50% and the change took place on April 1 (and it's not a joke, either LOL). Authors get that rate once they earn out their advance. Again, not bad.

So things are looking up in both the digital and traditional worlds of publishing and I commend authors like Amanda Hocking who are working in both independent publishing and traditional publishing arenas. Diversification has always been a key factor in success and I personally think this is an astute move on her part.

Marketing
Like publishing, marketing is shifting too and astute authors have already recognized this. While much of the social scene is still "Me, first!" and "Look at ME!", marketing using "Look at ME!" strategies is simply not that effective any longer. The tide is shifting toward building an online community.

Let's think about it. What made authors like Amanda Hocking so popular? Talent? Sure--that's a given. And writing stories that resonated with readers. But beyond that, what she was able to do was to create a community of readers who shared their interest in her books.

The key was building a community.

When you build a community, you're shifting the focus away from, "What can I do to get people to notice my book?" to "What can I offer to the community?" It may seem like a subtle difference, but what is really entails is focusing on what your readers want or need, rather than what you want (i.e. to sell more books).

You need to interact with folks. Find topics to discuss that interest your readers. Tell them what you like and share your own interests. Build a community.

I'll tell you, when I stopped thinking in terms of shoving my book, The Vital Principle, in everyone's face all the time and started thinking about sharing interesting things (like the research other authors do for their books) I doubled my sales. I didn't expect to, but I did.

Talk about your positive reinforcement. Suddenly, altruism and helping other writers seemed like a great idea.

Then I read a book mentioned by Bob Mayer, We are Not Alone, The Writer's Guide to Social Media" by Kristen Lamb, and many of these notions I was starting to have fell into place.

If you haven't read that book, get it. Read it.

Do it.

Guest Blog: Pamela DuMond

As most of my readers already know, I love humor, so I'm thrilled to have Pamela DuMond as a guest. She writes mysteries with a side of humor which are just my cup-o-tea, and her blog offers a taste of the fun in her books. A lot of writers (myself included) will wince as they read echoes of their own experiences in her path toward publication.

Stop The Presses!
Thanks Amy Corwin for letting me guest blog today. Looking for some fun reads? Check out Amy’s books here: http://tinyurl.com/4k5hvfx

Looking for another funny paranormal mystery? Check out Cupcakes, Lies, and Dead Guys here: ttp://tinyurl.com/4ba5z75

And here’s the Book Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdijpPkuzeU

I thought you might enjoy a peek into my novel writing process. Probably many of you reading Amy’s blog are working on your own novels.

Here’s how it went for me in, ‘Newspaper Headlines’.

Pamela DuMond Attempts Writing Non-Fiction Books!
The Book on Goddesses disappeared into the ethers never to be seen again. The Travel with Your Dog book ate my homework, chased my cat and then ran away from home.

Desperate to Save her Marriage, DuMond edits Husband’s Books!
Well this was a lame idea, but therapy didn’t work either. At least I got two editing credits for my efforts.

DuMond Discovers and Pitches Erin Brockovich’s story to Jersey Films!

I was the chiropractor who thought Erin’s real life story would make a great movie. I introduced her to a producer at Jersey Films. You all know how that turned out.

DuMond Finally Published in Soul Moments edited by Phil Cousineau!
I submitted two articles about synchronicity. Officially published. Yay!

Screenplays Written by DuMond go Nowhere!
Once the Brockovich thing happened, I decided I was going to write some screenplays and go Hollywood. Spent heaps of money taking screenwriting classes at UCLA. Wrote a bunch of scripts ranging from pretty bad to somewhat okay. Realized this was a long slow road to Nowhere-ville.

Pamela DuMond Decides to Write a Novel!
I knew a woman who got a hot three book deal with a big publisher based on a really fun script and three chapters. Hmm. I wrote my first novel. A bunch of patient people read it and gave me multitudes of notes. I wrote about ten more drafts. Then sent out queries to agents and got enough rejections to wall paper my house. I edited my ms again as well as the query letter. And…

DuMond Scores Literary Agent at Very Reputable Agency!
Got the phone call from a newly minted young hungry agent at a top agency She was smart, loved the book and had plans. This was so exciting!

Zillions of Book Editors Reject DuMond’s manuscript!
Hey wait a minute. What do you mean the mystery editors passed? Hold on – Women’s Commercial Fiction editors didn’t like my novel either? Re-write it as more of a Romance? Sigh. Okay. Fine. I’d sex it up and we would re-submit to Romance Editors.

Agent Disappears from Agency and DuMond is Agent-Orphaned!
This could be a whole ’nother blog post right here. Suffice it to say, my agent was ix-nayed and because I hadn’t sold yet, I was ix-nayed as well. Bereft, nauseated, I decided to write a new novel. But first I called my writer buddy, Julie, to cry on her shoulder.

Mystery Novelist Julie Smith Dolcemaschio to the Rescue!
Julie called her editor at Krill Press. He was closed to submissions but said he’d take a peek at three chapters. Then he asked for the whole ms.

Krill Press Loves the Novel - Offers DuMond Publishing Contract!
Yikes! Excited, happy, grateful. Many more steps thereafter.

Cupcakes, Lies, and Dead Guys Published – November 2010!
Yikes again!

DuMond up to her Chubby Behind in Marketing Confusion!
The realization sets in that in order to sell a book, a newly minted author who No One Knows must find ways to market said book. Let the mayhem ensue. (Most of it good!)

While I continue to spread the word about Cupcakes, Lies, and Dead Guys, I’m finishing a draft of my next novel, a YA, as well as plotting the second in the Cupcakes series. And I’m hoping the next headline will be in my near future:

DuMond’s YA Nabs New Agent and Publishing Houses Go Wild!
Thanks all! Now go read a good book and tell someone you love about it.

Best,
Pamela DuMond


Thank you so much! And good luck, though I doubt you'll need it! You may be the next Amanda Hocking!

More Statistics on ePublishing

For those who follow the trends in publishing, you may have seen the latest statistics on the trends from our last holiday season (Dec 2010/Jan 2011) in Publishers Weekly ( http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/46510-january-e-book-sales-soar-top-hardcover-mass-market-paperback.html ).

To summarize the article: predictions about ebook sales taking off were well-founded. Sales of e-readers during the holidays exploded, resulting in equally high sales of ebooks. Some estimates from the Association of American Publishers show that ebook sales went up almost 116% ($69.9 million in January). (Of course $1 million of that went to Amanda Hocking, but that’s another story. LOL)

Sales of mass market paperbacks, on the other hand, slipped nearly 31% lower. In fact, mass market paperbacks sold $30 million LESS than ebook sales. Sales of other “physical” books also fell.

Over the last few weeks, I know a lot of authors have seen similar information because there has been an explosion of “indie,” i.e. independent authors, publishing their backlists on the Kindle and in other epublishing arenas. For an established author, the question isn’t “should I accept the stigma of being an indie author?” but how “fast can I get my backlist shaped up and available?”.

If you’re not a NY-published (i.e. traditionally published) author, then there’s still something to consider. If you’ve been published by small press and have been unhappy with lackluster sales, and you think you might be suffering from a poor cover, uneven editing, or just a slightly too high price, you might want to consider getting your rights back and republishing the book on your own.

Are you insane?

No. I don’t think so. But then again…crazy people are the last ones to know that they’re crazy.

But the thing is this: you can re-edit your book, create (or buy) a better cover, and control the price. Looking at Konrath’s experiences with changing prices and going from $.99 to $2.99 and then back up to $.99, and the differences the various prices have on sales, well… I suggest that you may want to seriously consider this.

Small press are caught in a bit of a pickle at the moment. They have to charge more than the $2.99 price because they have to pay cover artists, editors, and generally pay for their publishing operation. An indie author doesn’t have this overhead and therefore can set whatever price their little heart desires. Astute authors will note I’m completely disregarding the fact that indie authors do have costs, i.e. overhead, in the form of computers, software, Internet connection costs, marketing, and any artistic (cover art) and editorial (hiring an editor) assistance they need. But they may have more leeway in deciding the price they wish to set because they may be paying for these things out of other pots of money.

My own experience with The Vital Principle seems to be supporting this theory. I elected to independently publish this historical mystery and while it hasn’t broken into any of the “top 100” lists yet, it is doing much better than all of my small press books. There are consistent sales. Right now, I have it priced at $.99, and we’ll see how well it continues to sell at that price.

I’d love to hear from readers and authors on their experiences and thoughts about this “brave new world” of epublishing.

The publishing industry continues to ravage itself. Borders is closing 200 stores and considering whether to close 75 more. For those who travel a lot, the good news is that so far, they say they are trying to keep their airport stores open.


With more and more bookstores closing, it seems like the game is changing in favor of mass market outlets like Wal-Mart, Target, and other discount stores. Category romance books from industry giants like Harlequin will therefore continue to have strong sales as they’ve always maintained a strong shelf presence in those spaces. Likewise, bestseller authors with traditional companies should continue to do well as they’ve always received shelf-space in those stores.

If you’re a mid-list author (or lower, non-existent/small-publisher-list like me) you can pretty well forget about sales except through Internet store-fronts like B&N and Amazon.

But it’s not all gloom and doom out there. Just a lot of turmoil. A lot of authors are finding success with the rise of ebooks. Most people are familiar with the mega-success of Amanda Hocking and J.A. Konrath, who have been talking about the glories of epublishing for a couple of years now. Even Bob Mayer in his recent blog http://writeitforward.wordpress.com/2011/03/11/i-was-wrong-konrath-was-right  has turned the corner on accepting epublishing as a viable route for new and mid-list authors.

As Mayer points out, mid-list authors get virtually no marketing/promotional assistance from their publishers, anyway, so it’s up to the author to market his/her work.

However, unlike Konrath, I’m not as sanguine that new authors won’t get lost in the huge tidal wave of backlist books by established authors with well-developed fan bases. Literally hundreds, if not thousands, of excellent, well-edited books coming out as folks upload them into various ebook outlets such as Amazon.com.

I’m hoping, however, that there will still be room for small press and independent authors. It will be a challenge to find an audience when you’re one tiny voice amidst thousands, but I feel sure at least some will make a success of it, like Amanda Hocking.

There are some lessons learned, however, that are particularly relevant here.

• Amanda’s success grew gradually, over the course of 8 books. That’s right, it was her 8th book in combination with 30 or so reviews that tipped the scales toward success. The lesson here is two-fold: a) the chance of having a hit on your first, indie ebook are very, very slim; and b) you’re going to have to work like the devil to socialize your books to garner enough reviews and attention to attract sales.

• Editing, cover art, and pricing are critical. Most indie sales occur at the $.99 price. But now that everyone has learned that lesson and is offering their books at $.99, you’re going to have to have an even better product and work even harder to socialize it to beat out well-known authors like Konrath. That means, your cover art and editing have to be top-notch. Some recommend buying professional editing and art work.

• This isn’t a competition…or is it? There are only 100 books in the top 100 list for any genre. Amazon doesn’t list all books for every genre when it offers suggestions. Like it or not, you’ve got competition for the reader’s dollar.

There are reasons for optimism, even heavily tempered with the harsh realities of the marketplace. Much as we might like, we can’t all be Amanda Hocking, J.A. Konrath, or Bob Mayer, but at least if we work really, really hard and then harder still, and are willing to edit the heck out of our books, we can get them in front of readers.

In my case, I’m ecstatic that The Vital Principle, a historical mystery has sold well over 100 copies in the first two weeks. It’s a start and a good one.

The Vital Principle
In 1815, an inquiry agent, Mr. Knighton Gaunt, is asked by Lord Crowley to attend a séance with the express purpose of revealing the spiritualist as a fraud. The séance ends abruptly, however, and during the turmoil, Lord Crowley dies. Gaunt is left to investigate not only fraud, but murder. Suspicion turns first to the spiritualist, Miss Prudence Barnard, but as Gaunt digs deeper into the twisted history of the guests at Rosecrest, he discovers more deadly secrets.  Inevitably, long-time friends turn against one another as the tension mounts and Gaunt is challenged to separate fact from fiction.

Book Covers - Help Me Decide

I'm working on the second draft for a historical mystery in my Second Sons Inquiry Agencymystery series and I'm really torn on a cover image. The first book in the series is shown here. It's clean, simple, and the image is relevant to the book.

I'd found the cover image I wanted, an old-fashioned rose with a bit of blood spatter against a white background. It would go well with the first book in the series, which is a white candle with a trail of smoke against a black background.

But then I saw this other image and it was just so cool I'm having a hard time resisting it.

Now, I don't know if I should go for a "series look" the way I originally intended and use the "rose and blood" image or if I should just go with the cool picture because it's cool.

The rose image is probably more appropriate to the book, which is a mystery involving a killer who sends a rose as a taunt to the Second Sons Inquiry Agency each time he's preparing to kill someone. If they can identify the rose correctly, they might be able to identify the victim and save him or her. Hence the image of the rose. That is really what I had in mind as I was writing the book.

But as I said, it's so hard to resist when you find another bright, shiny object elsewhere. This last picture is just so evocative that it's hard for me to resist.

Maybe I should just save it and use it for the third paranormal book I'm planning to write at some point after my latest, A Fall of Silver, is released from The Wild Rose Press. Theresa Blackstone, a secondary character from both my first (Vampire Protector) and second (A Fall of Silver) paranormal romances will be getting her own book. Soon. I just have so many books in so many various stages of planning, writing, and editing that it's hard to keep up. Wish I wasn't wasting so much time on my day job. LOL

So help me decide! Should I stick with the original image and go for a "series feel" as it fits in with the first cover? Or, since the books really all stand alone and even have different characters (although Knighton Gaunt, the owner/founder of Second Sons does make an appearance in all of them) should I take a more individual approach for the images?

Which cover image would you go for?

The Changing Face of Publishing

Lots of good news and plenty to watch in the world of publishing. With Borders and other bookstores struggling, we may be seeing a shift away from the brick-and-mortar stores to streams of electrons rather like the music revolution where record stores all but disappeared in favor of downloading MP3s. At least that’s the speculation, but how true is it? Really?

It’s not entirely true for music, so I doubt it’s entirely true that within five years or so, paperback books will be a thing of the past.

Here’s the thing: there are still CDs being produced and sold. There’s an entire aisle of them in my local Wal-Mart, for example. Not everyone who is interested in music has a computer and access to the Internet. Wow. Did you realize that a significant portion of the people in the United States don’t have computers or access to the Internet? I’m not making this up. It’s true. Yes, some of them go into places like libraries to use the computers there, but still…

Music CDs still exist, although many folks seem to forget this.

And while the music stores are mostly gone, CDs are sold through other outlets. And I have every confidence that books, following the same trends, will move along similar lines. We may see the demise of the dedicated bookstore, I seriously doubt all printed books will disappear within the next five years (or so). I have every confidence that paperbacks, like CDs, will continue to be sold in outlets like Wal-Mart and Target. There will be significant portions of the population who don’t have e-readers or any kind and chose not to read books on their smartphone. They may not have computers, either.

 

Not every person who reads owns a computer or wishes to read a book in electronic form, just like enough people prefer to buy CDs and play them on their CD player.


So while I read Konrath’s blog about e-publishing, I have a difference in opinion in some of the details. For example, I think he’s downright crazy to tell a fellow author to decline a 200K traditional book contract in favor of self-publishing. That’s just crazy. You never, ever turn down a 200K “sure thing” that includes a substantial advance. It’s always better to get a large chunk of money in one lump sum than drips and drabs spread out over time, because of interest. Even if you earn 1%, you’ll have more at the end of one year with a large chunk + interest, than you will getting a small trickle.


And after all, he forgets that Mr. Big Author who gets the 200K traditional contract can then be published, get the name/acclaim, and eventually get his rights back if he wishes and self-publish that same work, in essence, double-dipping.

So I don’t think self-publishing is the only answer from here on out. And since this is a topic which interests me, I’ll be writing a few more blogs about the publishing industry and self-publishing.

Now…for my news.

The Vital Principle – a historical mystery that takes place in the early years of the 19th century is out! An inquiry agent is hired to expose a spiritualist as a fraud, only to be enmeshed in his employer’s murder. I’ve already gotten one terrific review, and it’s sold more in its first week than some of my other small press books have sold in several months. That’s always encouraging.

Right now, it’s only sale for $.99 as a “special introductory price”. Like Konrath, I’m exploring what prices are appropriate for novels. We’ll see how it all turns out over the next few months.


Wacked! – This cozy mystery has gone through the first series of edits with my wonderful editor at Five Star/Gale and now I’m eagerly awaiting news about the cover. I’m dying to see what they come up with. The heroine is an overworked computer specialist (like me) who stumbles into a murder investigation. Thanks to this contract, I was able to join Mystery Writers of America! I’m thrilled and it’s just in time for the Malice Domestic conference. I’m hoping to attend this yearly conference on a regular basis as it lets me visit the area where I grew up.


A Fall of Silver – The Wild Rose Press accepted my second paranormal romance! I love my editor, so I’m very, very happy about this. For those who read my first paranormal, Vampire Protector, you may remember a secondary character named Quicksilver. This book is her story. It is much darker, edgier and sexier than any of my other books, so I’m a little nervous about it. But sometimes, my dark side just demands to be heard.


Next on my roster is another mystery set in the 19th century. I’m working on the second round of edits. I’m calling it A Rose Before Dying, at least for now. We’ll see if that turns out to be the final title or not.


That’s it for now!

Would you buy this book?

Book covers and cover art are so important! When I walk into a bookstore or even browse online, the first thing that catches my eye is the bookcover. It's what makes me pick up a book and read the blurb. And then read the first paragraph. And then buy the book.

Without a good cover, chances are that most readers will never bother to read the blurb unless it's an author they know and love already.

So I'm very, very interested in what draws in a reader. I've got a historical mystery coming out in the next couple of months, so I'm particularly interested in covers at the moment.

What do you think of this cover?
It's for a historical mystery set in 1815 and features a spiritualist accused of murder.



In 1815, an inquiry agent, Mr. Knighton Gaunt, is asked by Lord Crowley to attend a seance with the express purpose of revealing the spiritualist as a fraud. The seance ends abruptly, however, and during the turmoil, Lord Crowley dies. Gaunt is left to investigate not only fraud, but murder. Suspicion turns first to the spiritualist, Miss Prudence Barnard, but as Gaunt digs deeper into the twisted history of the guests at Rosecrest, he discovers more deadly secrets.  Inevitably, long-time friends turn against one another as the tension mounts and Gaunt is challenged time and time again to separate fact from fiction.

What do you think of the cover?

What kinds of covers attract you? I'd love to read your comments and suggestions, so be sure to let me know!

Predictions for Publishing

Publishing—What the heck is going on?



Everyone has their own opinion about the publishing industry and where it’s headed. Heck, read J. A. Konrath’s blog http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/ for a fascinating look at book publishing and the growth of e-publishing. Is traditional, NY-based, Big House publishing in trouble? Morphing into something else?


Who knows?


It’s all speculation. Me? I just thought it might be fun at the start of 2011 to take a look at publishing. Perhaps it’s just all that Science Fiction I read in my younger years that’s compelling me to do this. Perhaps my family is right and it’s deep-seated, intensely morbid insanity.


What-ever.


Some of these predictions are my own wish-list. Some are just fun. Some are fun, but also on my wish-list. I leave it to you to decide what might be real and what is just demonic possession.


Projections for the Publishing Industry


2011


Through a series of mergers and acquisitions, the big 6 NY Publishers became the big 3. Several medium-sized publishers merge to become one of the 3 new, big 3 NY publishers.


Sales of e-books continued to skyrocket with reports from Amazon that they now sell three e-books for every paper/hardcover book sold. After this announcement, a Barnes and Noble spokesperson is reported as saying, “Hey, so are we! Wait—no! We’re selling FOUR times as many e-book as paperbacks! Especially since we’ve closed 40% of our stores in less productive markets this year. No—wait. Don’t report that last part. Just say we’re selling four times as many e-books as paperbacks. Wait! Can I get a do-over on this interview?”


A standard format for e-books is under discussion to allow readers to more easily move their virtual libraries from one type of e-book reader to another. E-book virtual libraries are under discussion by leading technologists so readers can keep their stash of books “in the cloud” and permanently available regardless of the devices used for reading/storing the books.


In a surprise move, the Federal Government takes over management of the public library system in the U.S. due to issues with funding and the rate of closures. Feds claim they will examine hosting virtual libraries for readers, too, as part of the public library system and as a way to fund the remaining physical libraries.


2012


Through a series of mergers and acquisitions, the big 3 NY Publishers became the Big One.


Universities and Colleges now require students to have an e-book reader and all text books used are e-books downloaded from Google.


Harvard accidentally grants an author a PHD in English Literature and a tenured professorship when the author is listed on the Times Bestsellers list before they realize the author is self-published. One of Harvard’s non-tenured professors hangs himself in his office in response. Nobody finds the body for three months, leading to the accidental identification of the mummified remains as a medieval scholar who went missing from Cambridge and was widely believed to be brought to the New World as a curiosity to trade to the Native Americans for beaver pelts during the 17th century. The mistake isn’t discovered until his suicide note is found, inexplicably left in an antique typewriter in his office.


A standard format for e-books is adopted. Readers are unsure, however, if they wish to pay the exorbitant fees to have the Feds maintain their virtual library for them in the public library cloud.


In December, in another surprise move after what is dubbed “The Fed Cloud Debacle”, Starbucks strikes a deal with the Federal Government and takes over management of the public library system, incorporating them into their café system. The heavily caffeinated reading public starts consuming books at a faster rate, pumping some much needed energy into the print publishing industry.


2013


The Big One publisher initiates a new program to find authors by trolling e-book sites. After an outcry from prolific and very articulate writers, software vendors include the Big One in their SPAM filtering to cut down on the number of annoying e-mails writers receive, begging for authors to submit their work.


Three agents kill themselves when the last of their authors send them the now traditional “Bite Me” e-mails informing them they are now self-publishing, thank you, and raking in five times as much money as they earned as traditional authors.


Writer organizations such as Mystery Writers, Science Fiction Writers, and Romance Writers of America, open their doors to the self-published authors. They have so much money they don’t know what to do with it, so they start buying management of literacy programs from the Feds, who are glad to get the money, even if they have to shut down and RIF 50% of the Department of Education.


After the Feds put pressure on them, Starbucks Café and Library system opens up a soup kitchen extension that offers “Soup and a Book” to support the homeless who want to read. After three months, one heavily caffeinated customer spills soup all over his e-book reader due to the “Starbucks Shakes” and he’s electrocuted and dies. The soup kitchens are closed.


2014


Agents are forced to register in a central system so software vendors can include agents in their SPAM filtering to cut down on the number of annoying e-mails writers receive, begging for authors to submit their work. Impetus is added to this when agents bog down Internet traffic with their desperate, whiny e-mails begging authors to choose me!


Five well-known writers who clung to traditional publishing leap off the Empire State building holding hands as a final protest when the NY Times Bestsellers list is dominated by self-published writers writing the enormously popular Science Fiction Romance series: Werewolves are from Mars, Vampires are from Venus. The news article announcing this tragedy misspells all but one of the author’s names and has to issue a retraction which no one reads. However, one lone blogger in Detroit sees the retraction and mistakenly believes all the authors—except one—survived. This leads to a revolutionary phenomenon in e-books purported to be from the four remaining authors about werewolves and vampires who fall in love during long space voyages. These e-books are widely believed to be written by the authors’ ghosts. The e-books outsell all of the authors’ previous works, combined.


Ghosthunters, International does a show where they prove the four authors’ ghosts are writing from a castle in Scotland, using the ENIAC computer abandoned there in 1949, and a 300-BAUD modem to access an obscure bulletin board system with a connection to the Internet running in the pantry of one of Elton John's mansions in England.
 News agencies begin to predict the end of e-books because of general illiteracy and the fact that anyone who can complete a manuscript can be a published author. Obviously, only the illiterate can write a book nowadays given the current hostile publishing climate. And who has time for reading when everyone spends all their time on blogging, tweeting, social networking, and e-mailing?


So there you have it. A look at the next four years in publishing.